MONDAY:

USA:

12:45 pm – USD – FOMC Member Warsh Speaks

TUESDAY:

US:

10:00 am – USD – CB Consumer Confidence. Expected 62.6, Previous 63.3. Lower than expected numbers can drive the USD to Lower levels.

WEDNESDAY:

EUROPE:

2:00 am – GBP – Nationwide HPI m/m. Expected 0.3%, Previous 0.5%. Higher than expected numbers can drive the GBP to higher levels.

4:30 am – GBP – Final GDP q/q. Expected 0.3%, Previous 0.3%. Higher than expected numbers can drive the GBP to higher levels.

5:30 am – CHF – KOF Economic Barometer. Expected 2.17, Previous 2.16. Higher than expected numbers can drive the CHF to higher levels.

US:

8:15 am – USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change. Expected 58K, Previous 55K. Higher than expected numbers can drive the USD to higher levels.

8:30 am – CAD – GDP m/m. Expected 0.2%, Previous 0.6%. Higher than expected numbers can drive the CAD to higher levels.

ASIA:

9:30 pm – AUD – Building Approvals m/m. Expected 0.0%, Previous -14.8%. Lower than expected numbers can drive the AUD to Lower levels.

9:30 pm – AUD – Retail Sales m/m. Expected 0.3%, Previous 0.6%. Lower than expected numbers can drive the AUD to Lower levels.

THURSDAY:

EUROPE:

4:30 am – GBP – Manufacturing PMI. Expected 57.6, Previous 58.0. Higher than expected numbers can drive the GBP to higher levels.

US:

8:30 am – USD – Unemployment claims. Expected 456K, Previous 457K. Lower than expected numbers can drive the USD to Lower levels.

10:00 am – USD – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Expected 58.9, Previous 59.7. Lower than expected numbers can drive the USD to Lower levels.

10:00 am – USD – Pending Home Sales m/m. Expected -4.5%, Previous 6.0%. Lower than expected numbers can drive the USD to Lower levels.

FRIDAY:

US:

8:30 am – USD – Non-Farm Employment Change. Expected -103K. Previous 431K. Lower than expected numbers can drive the USD to higher levels.

8:30 am – USD – Unemployment Rate. Expected 9.8%. Previous 9.7% lower than expected numbers can drive the USD to higher levels.

THE FOMC STATEMENT Indicates that the funds rate target range remains unchanged and that rates will remain “exceptionally low” for an “extended period”, as was generally expected. Economic recovery is proceeding (as opposed to ’strengthening” in the prior statement) and the job market improving gradually. More to follow.

[BoE JUN MINS] in a bit of a surprise with a 7-1 vote for unch bank rate (0.5%) vs 8-0 f/c with MPC member Sentance the dissenter, voting for a 25bp increase (to 0.75%) citing CPI risks. There was a clear cut 8-0 vote for unch QE though (Gbp 200bn). The MPC minutes, therefore, showed the first split on a rate decision since Feb 2009 + first call for a rate hike since Aug 2008, though a division like this has been brewing for a while (CPI been 3%-3.7% for 2010). Members deliberated whether UK CPI will fall as quickly as in US & Eurozone once temporary downward factors fade, and as we highlighted in our preview a growing & considerable uncertainty about how much spare capacity will bear down on inflation. In addition, the mins noted that the near-term CPI prospects are still elevated with upside risks from indirect tax rises as well as CPI expectations. In sum, pretty much as we expected, Sentance aside.

Japanese PM [KAN] earlier spoke of the need for tax reform in order to formulate a strong fiscal policy. Kan sees multi party debate necessary to reach an early conclusion and hopes to achieve a primary balance surplus by 2020. Returning to the issue of tax Kan sees a hike taking 2-3 years to implement but feels that to hike the sales tax in order to reduce debt would cause deflation. Whether Japan can continue issuing debt to pay welfare costs is a key question and the PM will seek mandate before implementing any drastic tax reforms. Deputy Fin min [IKEDA] earlier declined to comment on FX rates, but said the authorities will watch the impact of Yuan reforms closely